Forecast

20
April
Situation and medium-term forecast for

Issued 18th of April 2019

Situation and medium-term forecast

Pollination is increasing again over the Easter weekend –moderate to high birch pollen concentrations expected!
The spring-like weather conditions continue during the Easter weekend and cause an increase in pollination. Therefore, moderate to high birch pollen concentrations are still possible.

Most of the flowering potential of birch is exhausted in the lowlands and thermic favoured regions. This infers only moderate birch pollen concentrations in the coming days. Caution has to be taken in higher elevated regions during favourable conditions, because the flower progresses later there and can cause high to very high pollen loads. In the next weeks long-range transport events, especially from the northern neighbouring countries might occur where birches are still in full flower. If wind currents from the north are forecasted, birch pollen concentrations might increase rapidly in the lowlands again. Our forecast of a less intense birch pollen season for 2019 (measured by the total birch pollen concentrations) is coming true.

Hornbeam, hop hornbeam, oak and beech flower. Some birch pollen allergy sufferers might be burdened in addition due to cross-reaction.

Ash flowers. Its has exceeded its peak already in the lowlands. The ash flower is less intense this year as expected.

The plane tree still flowers in some parts of Austria. A significant burden from plane tree pollen has to be expected in urban areas particularly in avenues of plane trees.

The forecast data for the next phase of the pollen season, the readiness to flower for grasses, indicate a start for the beginning to mid of May. This indicates an average start of the grass pollen season from a current point of view.

Note: Easter time is holiday and travel time. Please be aware that the flower of birches progress later in the northern European countries. In southern Scandinavia the birches will be in full flower soon. In the southern European countries the flower of birch has already ended but the flower of grasses is starting in the next days. Also the manna-ash tree, a popular alley tree in southern Europe starts flowering and might irritate ash pollen allergy sufferers. We recommend using the European pollen load maps (https://www.pollenwarndienst.at/AT/en/current-data/pollen-load-map-of-europe.html) to be aware of the local situation.

What else: The pollen spectrum contains pollen from cypresses and yews, willow and sedges in addition, which is of a low allergological importance.

We expect the readiness to flower for grasses inon
Vienna02.05.2019
Eisenstadt02.05.2019
St. Pölten02.05.2019
Linz03.05.2019
Salzburg04.05.2019
Innsbruck04.05.2019
Bregenz07.05.2019
Graz02.05.2019
Klagenfurt03.05.2019
Bozen25.04.2019
Munich11.05.2019


Forecast from 18.04.2019
Note: The model results give an indication of the expected start of flowering, based on information provided by local pollen warning services with direct reference to the local situation. Start of flowering is not to be equated with the beginning of the pollen season. When the start of flowering is achieved, the majority of the plants have the potential to release pollen, but only when weather conditions are favourable.

Responsible for the content:

pollenwarndienst.at and the Department of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology of the Medical University Vienna, Research group aerobiology and pollen information
Uwe E. Berger MBA und Mag. Dr. Katharina Bastl
medium-term forecast based on model and pollen data from Austria and surrounding countries
reprint and publication in parts or completely is permitted only quoting the source

weather data and today´s forecasts based synoptic data: ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik)
zum Team

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